Review, Analyze and Forecast

by Colonel Bob Pappas, USMC, Retired

The South Carolina primary is now, and voters are going to the polls. Reviewing to date, it has been an interesting race with Gingrich going into Iowa in a leading position only to be taken out by negative ads from the Romney and Paul campaigns. That act propelled Santorum, who had been at 5% to a win. Despite considerable effort and expense, Romney was able to find no more votes than four years ago.  Ron Paul followers put him in third place and Gingrich free-fell to fourth; and, Rich Perry landed fifth while Bachman dropped out and Huntsman was a no-show.

One’s carefully considered opinion is that the salient reason that Santorum and Romney scored in Iowa was the negative advertising campaign focused almost exclusively on Gingrich. Romney had 25% locked up and gained nothing from the advertising. Gingrich lost about 25% from his original position and that was split with most of it going to Santorum. Thus Santorum as the only remaining “untested” conservative rose from 5% to win at approximately 25%, and Perry who had taken a fall in poll numbers early-on rose from 5 to 10%. Negative ads did nothing to help Dr. Paul. The net effect of the $3 million dollar expenditure by Dr. Paul/backers and Gov. Romney/backers was a major boost to Santorum that otherwise would have never occurred.

In the New Hampshire primary Gingrich was held to fourth place and Santorum fell to fifth, with Gingrich winning that two man contest by a fifty vote margin according to an AP report. Romney did not perform quite as well as expected, at 39.3% due to 16.9% of the votes siphoned off by Huntsman. Perry was a no-show and Paul drew 21%.

Going in to South Carolina most media including Fox were referring to Romney as the “presumptive Republican nominee.” Romney’s big win in New Hampshire and tie in Iowa with an established campaign infrastructure in South Carolina for five years was combined with the notion that whoever wins there would go on the cinch the nomination. Given his big lead in the polls he was expected to win going away. However, his debate performance and attack ads were offset by stronger debate performances from the other candidates. That depressed his 36% figure going in to South Carolina to 26% the day before the election. Gingrich moved to 32% on strong debate performance, a number of salutary endorsements and strong campaigning.  Dr. Paul is holding at 11% and Santorum at 9%. This alignment, absent the percentages was forecast earlier.

Undecided voters will make the final determination. It is likely that most undecided votes will go to Gingrich because of his willingness to fight back; is the strongest debater; has the broadest and best vision; can and will crush Obama; and has the most cogent and doable economic plan.

In a desperate effort to derail Gingrich, ABC’s release of an interview with his former wife was intentionally timed to inflict harm; and CNN piled on. While both media outlets claimed that voters needed to know the information, virtually everyone breathing knows that it has been in the public domain for a decade and is as stale as leftover smoke. The Speaker handled the matter masterfully and judging from the response, the crowd repudiated both the questioner and the question; and we believe boosted his candidacy sufficiently to win.

Semper Fidelis


Copyright ©  January 21st, 2012, by Robert L. Pappas. With proper attribution, this essay may be quoted and redistributed, except it may not be used in conjunction with any advertisement without the author’s expressed written permission.